GUEST ESSAY
Reprinted from the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/opinion/trump-lies-charts-data.html?campaign_id=39&emc=edit_ty_20240724&instance_id=129604&nl=opinion-today®i_id=69650493&segment_id=173002&te=1&user_id=442ce0b401d493bbed3b950d84a408c8
By Steven Rattner Graphics by Aileen Clarke
Mr. Rattner is a contributing Opinion writer. He served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.
- July 24, 2024
For more than 90 minutes last week, Donald Trump gave a rambling speech accepting the Republican nomination for president for a third time. He used the opportunity, as well as his June debate with President Biden, to repeat favorite false claims and exaggerations. That Mr. Trump has a proclivity for saying untrue things is well known. But in his latest campaign for the White House, I’ve been struck by what appears to be an escalation in both the frequency of Mr. Trump’s lies and the outrageousness of his distortions.
Now that the uncertainty around Mr. Biden’s candidacy has been resolved, the campaign will begin anew. With Mr. Trump sure to ratchet up his falsehood-laden rhetoric, it’s a good time to review his recent record of dishonesty.
Jobs
ADVERTISEMENT
Truth: Under Mr. Trump — even excluding the impact of the Covid pandemic — the economy generated an average of 182,000 jobs a month, well below Mr. Biden’s 277,000 a month (excluding his post-pandemic bounce) and Bill Clinton’s 242,000.
Job growth under Trump lagged behind Biden and Clinton
Even when the effect of the pandemic is excluded, the Trump administration’s
figures are lower than those of other recent presidents.
+400,000 jobs per month
384
Including
Covid gains
300k
277
242
200k
182
166
110
100k
54
22
0
Including
Covid losses
-60
–100k
Reagan
G.H.W. Bush
Clinton
G.W. Bush
Obama
Biden
Trump
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Department of the Treasury
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Inflation
Truth: Rising food prices are understandably on the minds of many Americans. But not a single item tracked by the government is more than 56 percent more expensive than it was when Mr. Biden took office, while grocery prices overall have gone up 21 percent.
Grocery price increases fell short of Trump’s claims
Change in the cost of food items from January 2021 through June 2024.
double
triple
quadruple
0
100
200
+300%
Margarine
+56%
Frozen juices and
drinks
+48%
Other fats and oils
+43%
Crackers and bread
+42%
Eggs
+39%
All food items
+21%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Tax cuts
Lie: “What we did was incredible …. We got the largest tax cut in history.”
Truth: The most analytically valid method for measuring the size of a tax cut is to compare it with the size of the economy at the time. By this standard, the Trump tax package was the eighth largest tax cut in the past century, well behind the cuts that Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama signed into law. (And, of course, Mr. Trump’s tax cuts mostly benefited corporations and the wealthy.)
Trump’s tax cuts were smaller compared to Reagan and Obama
Tax cuts shown as a percentage of the U.S. economy in that year.
0%
2%
3%
1%
Reagan
1981
2.9%
Truman
1945
2.7%
Truman
1948
1.9%
Obama
2013
1.8%
Johnson
1964
1.6%
Obama
2010
The Reagan tax cut was more than four times as large as the Trump cut.
1.3%
Harding
1921
1.1%
Trump
2017
0.6%
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Congressional Budget Office Note: Size of U.S. economy as measured by U.S. gross domestic product.
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Debt
Truth: The national debt grew considerably and at a faster rate each year under Mr. Trump. His tax cut helped drive the annual budget deficit to $1 trillion in 2019 from $680 billion in 2017. Including the impact of the pandemic, the national debt increased to $27.7 trillion from $19.8 trillion during Mr. Trump’s tenure.
The federal deficit grew during the Trump years
+$1 trillion surplus
Trump
presidency
0
–1
–2
–3
Great
Recession
Covid
pandemic
–$4 trillion deficit
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Tariffs
Truth: Studies have found that the costs of goods subjected to tariffs increased by roughly the full amount of those tariffs, meaning the costs were passed on to consumers.
Consumers paid for Trump-era tariffs
104 price index
103
Goods placed under tariffs in 2018
The cost of goods diverged after tariffs were added to some but not others.
102
101
All other
core goods
100
99
Tariffs in effect
98
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Prices are indexed to January 2018 levels as 100.
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Ukraine
Lie: “The European nations together have spent $100 billion, or maybe more than that, less than us.”
Truth: Mr. Trump has this reversed. While the United States and Europe spent roughly similar amounts the year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, their aid continued to grow; ours flatlined as Mr. Biden battled with isolationist Republicans before finally securing a new aid package in April.
European nations spent more on Ukraine aid than the U.S.
Cumulative aid for Ukraine since January 2022.
Total aid
$188 billion
$200 billion
250
Total aid
$107 billion
Europe
100
Russia invades Ukraine
United States
150
0
Jan.
2022
July
Jan.
2023
July
Jan.
2024
Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy Note: European aid includes support from European Union members as well as Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Britain.
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Immigration
ADVERTISEMENT
Truth: With unemployment having been at or below 4.1 percent for 30 months, we have a shortage of workers, not an excess. The number of employed native-born Americans has not grown meaningfully since 2019, but that’s largely because of retirements, not competition from immigrants.
A shortage of workers as Americans retire
Since July 2021, the United States has had more jobs than workers to fill them.
5 million more jobs than workers
0
2 million more jobs than workers
–5
–10
18 million fewer jobs than workers
–15
Great
Recession
Covid
pandemic
–20
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Crime
Truth: Crime has declined since Mr. Biden’s inauguration. The violent crime rate is now at its lowest point in more than four decades, and property crime is also at its lowest level in many decades.
Property crimes per 100,000
people
Violent crimes per 100,000
people
1991
5,140
1991
758
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
2020
399
2020
1,964
400
2,000
2024
295 (estimated)
2024
1,593 (estimated)
200
1,000
0
0
1988
1996
2004
2012
2020
1988
1996
2004
2012
2020
Source: F.B.I.; Jeff Asher
Opinion | Donald Trump’s Lies, Debunked by Data – The New York Times
Presidential rankings
Truth: Presidential greatness may be in the eye of the beholder, but this assertion is laughable. A recent survey of more than 150 current and former members of the presidents and executive politics section of the American Political Science Association put Mr. Trump dead last, behind James Buchanan (tarred with allowing the Civil War to begin) and Andrew Johnson (impeached, like Mr. Trump, and nearly convicted). Mr. Biden was ranked 14th greatest, just above Woodrow Wilson and Ronald Reagan.
Stop Trump 
Leave a comment